East african household off-grid energy storage power station

How does centralized grid service affect electricity supply in Africa South?

Expansion of centralized grid service largely reinforces the existing sources of baseload supply. At the other extreme, assignment of the entire incremental demand to off-grid solar resources significantly alters the electricity supply in Africa South.

Will Africa fully bypass centralized grid service?

With regard to off-grid generation in Africa, although off-grid resources have a role to play in expanding electric service, based on the extent of the existing electric grid infrastructure in Africa North, the continent is unlikely to fully bypass centralized grid service.

Why are off-grid technologies less competitive in Africa North?

Off-grid technologies are less competitive in Africa North, whose population has greater access to existing well-connected transmission and distribution systems.

Will off-grid generation shift the generation mix in Africa?

This analysis shows that off-grid generation has the potential to significantly shift the generation mix in Africa in the long term. If the estimated unserved electricity demand in Africa were satisfied exclusively by expanding the centralized grid, our analysis shows more growth in both coal- and natural gas-fired generation.

Where is Africa's natural gas generating capacity located?

Most of Africa’s natural gas-fired generating capacity is located in Africa North, where most of the natural gas resources in the continent are located (Table 1). Most of the continent’s coal-fired generating capacity is located in Africa South. The Sahara Desert creates a barrier to shipping fuels and transmitting electricity on the continent.

Does coal-fired generation increase with demand in Africa South?

As the principal fuel for electricity generation in Africa South, coal-fired generation also increases in the Comparative Reference case proportionally with demand; this increase is more consistent with planned additions for the region.